Generally legal means restrictions on its use are typical for medical care (e.g. you have to go to a doctor for a prescription, but doctors are available) and it is possible to get testosterone, estradiol, and at least one kind of effective antiandrogen legally. Florida, Alabama, Utah, and South Dakota currently currently are the only states to not meet these criteria.
If it is unclear whether restrictions qualify and a particular edge case would affect the result of the market, I'll conduct a poll for how it should resolve among my friends who have not bet on this market.
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My empirical side says to bet NO (there are about 20 states that I think have state governments far-right enough to start doing stuff like this, including the four already listed; I have a feeling HRT might be illegal in roughly 10-15 states in 2025 if the Supreme Court doesn't step in), but this is one market where I really, REALLY don't want to push the percentage down for the sake of my own mental health.
@evergreenemily oof, yeah. I think I created this market to counter my doomer-ism a little bit or at least put a reasonable bound on it. To be honest, the fact that this isn't a tiny probability at least makes me happy. It's certainly a good mental response to the loads of (totally justified) negativity about the whole trans rights situation right now.
I wanna subsidize it more so I can get a more accurate take tho. This is a question I really want a good answer to.
@evergreenemily is there anything meaningfully wrong here? I figure as two only two states have it (per Wikipedia), it is relatively safe to bet up.
@RobertCousineau Should be three - South Dakota counts too, since any doctor who prescribes HRT loses their liability insurance, which I expect to reduce the availability of care significantly.