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MANIFOLD
Will the Australian government withdraw its support for a two-state solution in 2023?
7
Ṁ170Ṁ834
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

Background

The Australian government currently supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In its online Israel brief, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) states that "Australia is committed to a two-state solution in which Israel and a future Palestinian state co‑exist, in peace and security, within internationally recognised borders."

A near-identical paragraph is included in DFAT's brief on the so-called "Occupied Palestinian Territories".

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the end of 2023, DFAT's online briefs on Israel and Palestine are both edited to remove all statements of support for a two-state solution.

The market will resolve NO on 1 January, 2024 if this does not happen.

Clarifications

The resolution of this market will be determined only as stated in the resolution criteria. Media coverage indicating that Australia will drop its support for a two-state solution would not be sufficient to resolve this market in the affirmative.

It is not necessary for Australia to explicitly oppose a two-state solution in order for this market to resolve in the affirmative. For example, if DFAT's Israel and Palestine briefs are edited to simply remove all references to the two-state solution, with no new text added, the market would still resolve YES.

Links

This market only concerns these two pages:

DFAT's Israel brief

https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/israel/israel-country-brief

DFAT's Palestine brief

https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/occupied-palestinian-territories

Market context
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