This market will resolve YES to the first head of government, of the five listed, to cease being the head of government of his country. It will resolve NO to all other options.

The circumstances (e.g. resignation, death, etc.) in which a head of government leaves office do not matter – they all count.

Temporary measures, however, do not count. For example, if Joe Biden invokes the 25th Amendment to temporarily transfer power to Kamala Harris, this will not be sufficient to resolve Joe Biden to YES.

Note that a head of government does not leave office immediately upon losing an election. For example, if Joe Biden is defeated in the presidential election on 5 November 2024, he may hold office until his successor is inaugurated on 20 January 2025.