Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?
31
114
αΉ€1k
2025
43%
chance

In 2022, Science Magazine proclaimed the James Webb Space Telescope the greatest scientific breakthrough of the year, in front of AlphaCode, DALL-E 2 & Stable Diffusion, Minerva, and everything else.


The winner for 2021 was AlphaFold.

Will the award for 2024 be given to a machine learning success?

Resolves YES if the winning breakthrough could be made into a paper for a top machine learning conference. This is slightly subjective; I will consult other machine learning researchers if the resolution is doubtful.

Resolves NO if machine learning doesn't play the key role in the winning entry. Papers "coathored" by GPT-4 or similar algorithms are aslo NO if the model did not generate the main scientific contribution.

Resolves N/A if the Science Magazine does not award its Top Breakthrough of the Year prize for 2023, for any reason. Also resolves N/A if there are multiple distinct winning breakthroughs, with at least one YES and one NO entry.

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