Will any open source LLM with <20 billion parameters outperform GPT-4 on most language benchmarks by the end of 2024?
Basic
19
Ṁ728Dec 25
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
GPT-4's benchmark results as of its release in march 2023.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
35% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
17% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
81% chance
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
35% chance
Will a 15 billion parameter LLM match or outperform GPT4 in 2024?
24% chance
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
53% chance
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will Llama-4 be (open sourced and) as good as GPT-4?
71% chance
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
30% chance