
Will any foundation model score 75 or higher on The Foundation Model Transparency Index by the end of 2024? (LLama2: 54)
20
Ṁ1kṀ12kDec 31
96%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The top-scoring model scores only 54 out of 100. No major foundation model developer is close to providing adequate transparency, revealing a fundamental lack of transparency in the AI industry.

There are 100 indicators that determine this score:

Read more: https://crfm.stanford.edu/fmti/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any AI model score above 90% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark before April 2026?
13% chance
Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?
71% chance
Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
72% chance
Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?
79% chance
Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?
72% chance
Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
33% chance
