If we ever make contact with extraterrestrial life, would the first contact be on Earth?

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Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

40% chance

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Will we make contact with intelligent aliens by 2050?

13% chance

Will humans make contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life by 2050?

5% chance

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

190

will humanity make contact with another intelligent life form / civilisation?

73% chance

When will alien life be first discovered?

Will we have contact with intelligent alien life by 2030?

15% chance

Will the first intelligent extraterrestrial that humanity encounters have what would be commonly described as eyes?

60% chance

If there is scientific consensus we've discovered the first extraterrestrial life form, will it be silicon based?

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If I line of free credit I would bet this down to 1% or less. The chance that aliens wipe out humanity
OR we can only communicate with aliens but not visit them except on crazy long timescales
OR we detect aliens and find a way to safely make contact at arms reach
OR we find aliens and zap them before they detect us
together make up more than 99%, imo

I don't see any reason why this would happen in the relatively short window between now and when we start colonizing space. Most likely it will happen outside our galaxy.

predictedNO

@StevenK https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iwWjBH2rBF7ExXeEG/replicating-and-extending-the-grabby-aliens-model

I feel like this is going to be biased towards YES because it's presently likely to pay out sooner than NO. We definitely aren't gonna go knock on the door at Alpha Centauri any time soon, but possibly they could be here next week.