Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?
18
552
2100
40%
chance

Earthlings include humans, any other species that evolved on Earth, and Earth-originating AI.

YES examples:

- Earthlings explore Mars and find non-Earth-originating life.

- Earthlings send an interstellar transmission to which aliens reply.

NO examples:

- Aliens transmit a signal towards Earth without having received a transmission from Earth, which is then received and interpreted by Earthlings.

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predicts NO

Given the grabby alien paper and the dissolving the Fermi paradox paper, then:

• Either no aliens in the light come or a lot (but still rare in a galaxy) (rarely a few civilisations only in a light cone).

• Non grabby civilisation may be much more frequent than grabby civilisations.

• Each grabby civilisations meet a lot of non grabby civ

• The early grabby civ meet a lot more other grabby civ than the late grabby civ

• Earth civ seems to be quite late or in the middle

• Because of looking at the first contact only, then a random civ is more likely to be contacted by another one (which is making first contact with a lot of civ)

• => No

• Issue remaining: Panspermia

Summary: Some civ make contact with many other civ, there is an asymmetry. The most likely event is we are contacted by a civ which already made contact with many other civs.

NA if there's no aliens by 2100?

predicts YES

@Mira No, this market will remain open until first contact. 2100 is a placeholder.

I see no reason this should deviate from 50%

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr I think that, since we have no idea what the first extraterrestrial life we contact will be like, we can't assume that it would even want to/care about initiating contact. Whereas we already know that humans want to initiate contact. So that makes the probability higher than 50% that we'll be the ones who end up doing it.

predicts YES

"Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?"