Gpt-5 >=91% on MMLU? | Manifold

Gpt-5 >=91% on MMLU?

41

Ṁ1kṀ2.6k

Dec 31

88%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Market context

GPT-5 Speculation

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People are also trading

GPT-5: 100+ on AMC

GPT-5: >178 LSAT

GPT-5: 120+ on AMC

GPT-5: 140+ on AMC

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

Will GPT-5.3 Thinking exceed 50% on Frontier Math Tiers 1-3?

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

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This tells us that MMLU is too easy. Someone make a Ph.D. version of it

@Sss19971997 it already exists: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022

predictedYES

Market's closing in a month with no sign of Gpt-5. @firstuserhere can you extend?

bunch of mmlu questions

gemini gets 90% on MMLU, so...

@TheBayesian wait what? share the link? i've not yet looked at it

GPT-4 can probably beat 91% with proper prompt engineering.

I have heard someone already did it using a combination of GPT-4 and some other model

People are also trading

GPT-5: 100+ on AMC

GPT-5: >178 LSAT

GPT-5: 120+ on AMC

GPT-5: 140+ on AMC

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

Will GPT-5.3 Thinking exceed 50% on Frontier Math Tiers 1-3?

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Related questions

GPT-5: 100+ on AMC

GPT-5: >178 LSAT

GPT-5: 120+ on AMC

GPT-5: 140+ on AMC

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

Will GPT-5.3 Thinking exceed 50% on Frontier Math Tiers 1-3?

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

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