Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI officially releases GPT-5 on or before July 31, 2025. The release date must be confirmed through an official announcement from OpenAI, such as a press release or a statement on their official website. If no such announcement is made by the end of July 31, 2025, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

As of June 20, 2025, OpenAI has not officially announced a release date for GPT-5. In February 2025, OpenAI released GPT-4.5, codenamed "Orion," which was described by CEO Sam Altman as a "giant, expensive model" (en.wikipedia.org). Subsequent reports indicated that GPT-5 was expected to be released within months, with some sources suggesting a launch in mid-2025 (blog.promptlayer.com). However, as of now, no official release date has been confirmed.

Considerations

OpenAI's development timelines have experienced delays in the past due to technical challenges and the need for extensive safety testing. For instance, the release of GPT-4.5 was postponed to address such issues (cincodias.elpais.com). Therefore, while there is speculation about a mid-2025 release for GPT-5, the absence of an official announcement introduces uncertainty regarding the exact timing.