By 2030, will AI be able to produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist?
By 2030, will AI be able to produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist?
11
210Ṁ922030
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
e.g. a song that experienced listeners can’t distinguish from a new song by Taylor Swift
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
By 2030, will AI be able to produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist?
POLL
Will an AI be able to repeatedly write rap songs that I think are good without human input in the lyrics before 2025?
84% chance
By 2030, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?
92% chance
Will an AI-generated song reach the Billboard Hot 100 song charts by the end of 2025?
21% chance
By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?
14% chance
🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?
67% chance
Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2026 be composed by AI?
50% chance
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
41% chance
Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?
23% chance
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
35% chance