Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the best Go players have played.
5
Never closes
<10%
10-30%
30-50%
50-70%
70-90%
>90%

For reference, DeepMind’s AlphaGo has probably played a hundred million games of self-play, while Lee Sedol has probably played 50,000 games in his life

Market context
AI
AI risk
Expert survey on AI progress, 2023
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
44% chance
By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the best Go players have played.
47% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
32% chance
By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.
69% chance
Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?
50% chance
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
50% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
20% chance
What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
66% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance