Will Zvi write a second 2024 predictions post in January?
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resolved Jan 29
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NO

The prediction evaluation post is done. The ACX plus Hard Fork predictions post is done and slated for the 9th, the trades are in. Will there also be another post focused on other predictions, or will I call it a day? Obviously I know what this crowd would prefer, but it is not clear there is sufficient interest, and time is a limited resource.

You can of course increase the chances of another post by giving me juicy material to consider, such links and other discussion is considered on topic here and thus allowed. So are bounties or bribes or giant intentionally available pickoffs and such, although actually changing the decision that way would be very not cheap.

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Considered it, toyed around, but had too much else to do, didn't seem worth it.

Came here from the 2023 evaluations and really enjoyed it!

You might find the humans vs bots 2024 tournament to be a good source of questions for another post:

https://manifold.markets/browse?s=most-popular&f=open&ct=ALL&topic=forecaster-bot-war

Someone posted a bunch of markets that presumably come from a Matt Yglesias post.

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=2024-matt-yglesias-predictions

Betting NO to incentivize you. 😉

There are sooo many elections this year: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024

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