Will Zvi Mowshowitz win at least $5k from the EA Criticism and Red Teaming Contest? | Manifold

Will Zvi Mowshowitz win at least $5k from the EA Criticism and Red Teaming Contest?

Basic

29

Ṁ6367

resolved Oct 2

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The contest is announced here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predicted YES

Wonder how I should update on Effective Altruism as a whole from this resolution. Will read the winning prizes, to see if any are paradigmatic enough

@JoyVoid I agree that the way to tell is to read the papers that did win bigger prizes, and see if I was right or not about what the contest was looking for...

My entry won an honorable mention, which counts as NO. Given the other prizes awarded, it seems it would have taken a lot to get a bigger prize.

Maybe I'm overestimating how fruitful this contest will be, but Zvi's entry feels more like an Honorable Mention to me. Is it more agreeing or disagreeing with the content of the post to think the post will win less money?

@journcy I think that is an excellent question, and the answer is probably mu.

predicted YES

Zvi submitted a contest entry here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pohTfSGsNQZYbGpCy/criticism-of-ea-criticism-contest There's a lot of stuff to digest, highly encourage y'all to check it out!

Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

If I run another Manifold MTG tournament, will Zvi enter?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

[Criticism and Red Teaming Contest] Did Manifold's top 30 identify more winners than EA Forum karma?

Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2024?

Will Zvi get punished in 2024 picking up pennies in front of a steamroller?

[Criticism and Red Teaming Contest] Did Manifold's top 15 identify more winners than EA Forum karma?

Will Zvi Mowshowitz ever eat his real hat?

Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2024?

If I run another Manifold MTG tournament, will Zvi enter?

Will Zvi get punished in 2024 picking up pennies in front of a steamroller?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

[Criticism and Red Teaming Contest] Did Manifold's top 15 identify more winners than EA Forum karma?

[Criticism and Red Teaming Contest] Did Manifold's top 30 identify more winners than EA Forum karma?

Will Zvi Mowshowitz ever eat his real hat?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules