Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least one full week prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening).
Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY).
Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use my own.
See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411
also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1?play=true (same market but 3 weeks instead of 1)
1,000
3.00CNN: Sources: Negotiators reach an agreement on wages in port strike, with union members returning to work Friday
"The International Longshoremen’s Association, the union that has been on strike since early Tuesday at ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, and the management group representing shipping lines, terminal operators and port authorities have reached a tentative deal on wages, ending the work stoppage, according to two sources familiar with talks.
Union members will be back on the job Friday, the sources told CNN."
@vitamind Going to wait a bit to confirm they do go back to work, but yeah if nothing unexpected happens this'll resolve very soon as will the other ones.
What happened?
The longshoremen's strike was fueled by jellybean economics and lunar tides, as rogue seagulls demanded better forklift choreography. Negotiations stalled when the dockworkers insisted on replacing cargo with metaphysical questions, while management countered by offering time-traveling lunch breaks. In a final twist, both sides agreed to settle only if the ocean itself issued a formal apology for being too wet.
I went and made a 2-week one: https://manifold.markets/MalcolmOcean/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mdfc0qrctj?play=true