Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?
127
212
2K
2026
14%
chance

Resolves to YES if some combination of federal laws and regulations makes it impractical for a substantial share of newly constructed buildings to install gas stoves. State and local regulations do not count here. Sufficiently high taxes would count if they succeed in practice.

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 6:59 pm

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What if lawsuits along the lines of asbestos lawsuits cause it to be banned de facto but not de jure?

I suppose you're talking about the US federal government? because that seems more likely than the German one banning gas stoves.

predicts NO

@LudwigBald Confirmed this is USA government only.

@ZviMowshowitz you sounded dismissive of induction stoves in your substack post related to this market. I'm assuming you are referring to induction stoves when you wrote "new electric stoves". I'm not a fan of old electric stoves either and would prefer gas to them (and currently have a gas stove). But I tried an induction stove at a friend's home recently and I'm sold. Did you plan to research induction stoves? or have you already researched them but you still prefer gas?

Related market, about whether they propose banning by 2025:

Substantial share is ... 10%?

@MartinRandall More like 25%, I think.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Zvi Mowshowitz

Since I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I wanted to include it in the post I'm finishing, here you go: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-federal-government-effecti