What if lawsuits along the lines of asbestos lawsuits cause it to be banned de facto but not de jure?

I suppose you're talking about the US federal government? because that seems more likely than the German one banning gas stoves.

@LudwigBald Yep he means US gov: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-cooking-with-gas

@LudwigBald Confirmed this is USA government only.

Related market, about whether they propose banning by 2025:

Substantial share is ... 10%?

@MartinRandall More like 25%, I think.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Zvi Mowshowitz

Since I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I wanted to include it in the post I'm finishing, here you go: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-federal-government-effecti