Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

144

2kṀ17k

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

ALL

Resolves to YES if some combination of federal laws and regulations makes it impractical for a substantial share of newly constructed buildings to install gas stoves. State and local regulations do not count here. Sufficiently high taxes would count if they succeed in practice.

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 6:59 pm

Market context

US Politics

United States

Health

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ211
2		Ṁ130
3		Ṁ119
4		Ṁ60
5		Ṁ59

People are also trading

Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2026?

14% chance

Will sales of new gas-powered leaf blowers be banned in the United States by 2030?

32% chance

Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2027?

12% chance

Will any USA State pass a law banning the sale of non-hybrid Gas Powered cars to average consumers by the end of 2030?

53% chance

Will Congress pass a law banning the sale of non-hybrid Gas Powered cars to average consumers by the end of 2030?

15% chance

Will Congress pass a law banning the sale of non-hybrid Gas Powered cars to average consumers by the end of 2040?

37% chance

Will the UK ban smoking for future generations before the end of 2026?

19% chance

Which state will be the first to ban the sale of new gas powered cars?

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

14% chance

Will aviation fuel with lead be banned in the United States before 2029?

Sort by:

What if lawsuits along the lines of asbestos lawsuits cause it to be banned de facto but not de jure?

I suppose you're talking about the US federal government? because that seems more likely than the German one banning gas stoves.

predictedNO

@LudwigBald Yep he means US gov: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-cooking-with-gas

@LudwigBald Confirmed this is USA government only.

Related market, about whether they propose banning by 2025:

Substantial share is ... 10%?

@MartinRandall More like 25%, I think.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Zvi Mowshowitz

Since I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I wanted to include it in the post I'm finishing, here you go: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-federal-government-effecti