Will the east coast USA port strike result in substantial additional restrictions on automation?
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24
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resolved Oct 6
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if the resolution of the strike includes what I consider substantial additional restrictions on the ability to automate the ports in question.

Resolves to NO if this does not happen.

Market would be extended as needed until the situation in resolved.

I will use my own judgment on what 'substantial additional restrictions' means and am probably not going to answer hypotheticals. Continuing to use existing language restricting automation does not count.

Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true

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Yeah, I think that the strike is now resolved, so as worded this resolves NO even though we don't know for sure that they won't get a deal that includes them later. Planning to resolve tomorrow-ish.

I am pretty sure this resolves NO but I'm going to wait a bit in case anyone thinks that's not clear yet.

@ZviMowshowitz I don't have a position on this market, but it sounds like automation restrictions are an ongoing part of the negotiations that resulted from this strike. I don't think we'll actually know until the final deal is arrived at.

@IsaacCarruthers The strike ended with negotiated terms. "Resolves to YES if the resolution of the strike includes...". It is possible that Zvi intended to ask the broader question "Will dockworkers negotiate additional restrictions on automation" but that is not how the question or resolution criteria are worded.

@becauseyoudo I would not say that the strike has resolved. It has tentatively ended pending an actual resolution that is expected in January. If the final agreement in January includes a blanket ban on all automation, would you really say that it did not result from this strike? Or that that agreement was not a part of the resolution of this strike?

@IsaacCarruthers The negotiations have not been fully resolved, but the strike did end with negotiated terms. This market's resolution criteria isn't ambiguous on the point you're contesting.

bought Ṁ500 NO

It looks like automation restrictions were not part of the strike resolution.

"The tentative agreement does not resolve differences between the union and shipping companies over the use of automated machinery, sources said. That will be a key focus of negotiations between both sides from now until January 15."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/dockworkers-strike-suspended-sources/story?id=114445386