Will OpenAI shares pay a dividend before AGI or by 2031?
24
1kṀ22922030
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves YES if OpenAI shares pay out a combined $1 billion or more in distributions to all shareholders. This can be a dividend or profit distribution, or proceeds from a sale of the company. Share buybacks do not count.
This resolves NO if OpenAI declares that it has achieved AGI, the company goes bankrupt, or the deadline occurs.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?
43% chance
Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?
2% chance
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of March 2026?
3% chance
Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?
90% chance
Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?
94% chance
Will OpenAI have >$10 billion in revenue by 2030?
98% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
74% chance
Will OpenAI have >$10 billion in revenue by 2027?
97% chance
Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025?
2% chance
Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?
70% chance