As per https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/2035341948756668567: Elon Musk offers to pay TSA workers' salaries amid government shutdown.
Resolves to YES if Musk pays for TSA workers' salaries amid government shutdown, out of his own pocket, and does not get a refund afterwards.
Resolves to NO if he does not.
I will count paying at least 50%+ of salary costs for at least 25% of all TSA agents, for a completed or fully legally-committed-to period of 7 days (minimum 1 day of actual payment), as paying.
Given this wording, if there is a dispute and I am less than 95% confident in the result, I will evaluate this via a 3-judge panel of Claude, ChatGPT and Gemini, giving them only the text above and asking for a yes or no resolution.
Update 2026-03-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Musk starts paying but the shutdown ends early, this resolves YES as long as he actually paid at least 1 day and had legally committed to at least 7 days of compensation. If the scenario is ambiguous, the LLM panel will decide.
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Everything Musk says is because he thinks it sounds good, that's as far as the grounding in reality ever goes. You can know with absolute certainty that he's not going to reach into his own pocket to pay others salaries, especially if they're unimportant average jo's.
Wait what? The details are confusing me. Why not 100% of the salary and 100% of the workers? What is the 7 day thing and what is the 1 day thing, I didn’t understand the distinction. And why would paying just one day of salary count as fulfilling this promise?
And why would paying just one day of salary count as fulfilling this promise?
I don't know Zvi's specific thought process, but my read between the lines is that he's set the thresholds 'low' to distinguish between a "no" resolution because Musk never really intended to pay (zero days) vs a "no" resolution because of something more like a technicality, e.g.:
- the DHS shutdown happens to end pretty quickly after musk starts paying
- several people or organisations make commitments to pay as a group of which Musk pays part
@draaglom I can affirm this was my intent - that if he did start paying and the shutdown ended, that would be a yes so long as he actually paid at least 1 day, provided he had legally committed to at least 7 days of compensation. But it means whatever the LLMs think it means, if we get into such a scenario and it's weird.