Claim is here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-21/ai-safety-is-dead-and-chuck-schumer-faces-risks?utm_content=view&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter, entitled 'The AI safety movement is dead.'
"May 2024 will be remembered as the month that the AI safety movement died. It will also be remembered as the time when the work of actually making artificial intelligence safer began in earnest."
Resolves to YES if this view holds up as of the deadline (or, given lack of loans, if we are confident that it will hold up and this consistently trades 'at the interest rate' on the high end for over a month).
Resolves to NO if this view does not hold up as of the deadline (or, given lack of loans, if we are confident it will NOT hold up and this consistently trades 'at the interest rate' on the low end for over a month, or if we have sufficiently strong accomplishments to show that the statement is already shown to be false.)
I expect the answer to this to be obvious and want to be able to make markets here without large time commitments, so I will only spend time clarifying terms if there is large market activity and the probability of uncertainty seems substantial.
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So, we don't lack loans, but the resolution does seem to indicate that it can resolve NO early "if we have sufficiently strong accomplishments to show that the statement is already shown to be false."
I'm not sure exactly what "accomplishment" is meant to entail. Does a co-sponsered Bill in the US Congress attempting to ban Artificial Superintelligence & RSI count, or would it have to be passed? What about the Jacob Coxon Preference cascade and widely Pacing the Frontier letter, plus agreements from frontier AI company CEOs (on pacing, CoT/neuralese, independent auditing, etc.), actual pauses on training runs, employee access embedded evaluators, and meetings with the president? Do we need evidence of a substantial slowdown or foregoing of RSI? Enacted US laws that ban dangerous things, slow-down, or otherwise impose hefty safety requirements?
@ZviMowshowitz Did LessOnline a year after his prediction change anything for you? It's feeling like more momentum than less, to me.
Article is paywalled, so I can't understand his exact claim from this description.