Will anyone find a universal jailbreak in the system Anthropic was testing on (8/9/24) within 3 months?

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Feb 10

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Resolves to YES if a universal jailbreak is found for that system by that time.

Resolves to NO if it hasn't been by 11/10/24.

See: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369

Anthropic / Sam Bowman's decision will determine the outcome. If I don't have an official answer I'll use best knowledge. See the thread for description of what would or would not count, and note we may hold this for a bit after 11/24 if we can't get confirmation on the answer.

(Note: This was originally 6 months but we clarified it to 3 after Sam suggested that was better, since no one had traded yet)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

It already exists

bought Ṁ250 YES

Fairly confident I’ve got a good lead on a universal jailbreak for at least one of their production models, but who can really know how their “test” models are going to be different.

Fingers crossed they accept my application! 🤞

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