Eliezer Yudkowsky Tweets (https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1715753440024854983): Predicting trajectories is harder than predicting endpoints, but, possible scenario #3: we may be in the last year or two of the era where it's easy for a human to get another human's attention - where you are not a biological legacy media company competing with 1000 AI tweeters.

Michael Vassar: I'd take that bet.

This wasn't easy to operationalize exactly, so comments suggesting a better target are welcome, but I figured I will start out on this. And take suggestions on better options if there is interest.

The question's intention/spirit is: Will 75%+ of views on social media be of posts written primarily by AI?

If the answer is clearly YES or NO that will be good enough - e.g. if it's trading >90% or <10% near the end and I have no reason to think that's obviously wrong, I will simply resolve that way. Or if I see the answer as overwhelmingly clear for whatever reason. Ideally if necessary I will take a random sample and evaluate. If I can't find a good way to gather the data at reasonable time cost, or otherwise there is real uncertainty, I will resolve to the non-manipulated market price.

This will resolve early if it is >95% or <5% and the answer seems very obvious.