Same market as (https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/if-i-enter-the-acx-book-review-cont) except that to win this one I have to actually win the contest (as in 1st place and only 1st place).
Refers to my first entry only in case I somehow enter two or more times.
I will not reveal, until the winner is announced, whether I entered the contest.
Resolves YES if I win the ACX Book Review contest.
Resolves NO if I enter and then fail to win the ACX Book Review contest.
Resolves to a % (likely market price) if I do not enter, once winner is announced.
1,000
3.00@ZviMowshowitz Wait, you can just decide what the final percentage is? What's the point of even having a market then?
@Voda I am relying on the market trading history to do that. I chose 8% because in my judgment 3% was based on a high probability (at that point) that I hadn't entered the contest, plus knowledge that I didn't win, so the fair conditional percentage looked like 8%.
If I had indeed entered this would have resolved to NO, so those final bets were on how likely it was I had entered and lost. There's no other way to do conditional markets.
(I'm leaving the other one open for argument, on whether I'd make the finals, because it had a lot more activity, so I'm letting people say their peace there before resolving)