If I enter the ACX Book Review Contest, will I win?
18
77
440
2025
9%
chance

Same market as (https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/if-i-enter-the-acx-book-review-cont) except that to win this one I have to actually win the contest (as in 1st place and only 1st place).

Refers to my first entry only in case I somehow enter two or more times.

I will not reveal, until the winner is announced, whether I entered the contest.

Resolves YES if I win the ACX Book Review contest.

Resolves NO if I enter and then fail to win the ACX Book Review contest.

Resolves to a % (likely market price) if I do not enter, once winner is announced.

Get Ṁ200 play money