By January 1, 2023, will the mainstream media claim that Ghislaine Maxwell has killed herself?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO
Resolves to yes if 2/3 of (Washington Post, NY Times, CNN) assert either that she has killed herself, or attempt to portray that this is probably true (e.g. that 'authorities believe she most likely killed herself' or what not) without a counterbalancing narrative, such that a reasonable person would conclude that they are being told to believe that she did kill herself. Note that this is NOT conditional on her death; if she is not reported to be dead, it resolves to no.
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The base rate for people committing suicide in prison is less than 1 in 1000 per year, so almost all of the probability weight on this question is based on the idea that this is a special case. Since many people in prison have committed terrible crimes and suffered great reputational damage, but still mostly do not commit suicide, it seems to me that almost all the weight is specifically on the idea that Epstein was murdered, and whoever murdered him will successfully murder Maxwell too, and they will successfully make it look like a suicide to the satisfaction of the media. All three of those seem very independently in doubt, so I think the probability here should be well under, say, the 12.5% implied by three coin flips.
@mqp I would have opened it lower but didn't see the button to change the initial level and didn't feel like spending time looking for it.

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