How will ZorbaTHut choose to continue The Motte?
Resolved
Self-Hosted Tildes (Option 4)
May 8
M$591 bet
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like_rationalists_leaving_a/ for more context. This is a market that resolves based on a future decision of mine. I've included all the options I'm currently considering. If I end up choosing something other than those options, I'll pick the answer that seems closest if there is a sufficiently close one, or N/A otherwise. I don't think it's possible to formalize this resolution further; you'll just have to trust me. I encourage you to attempt to influence my decision! But you should probably do it in the above link. I have individual markets for the success of each option, if taken. The success of those markets will likely influence the outcome of this one. Check https://manifold.markets/tag/themotte_leaving for a list (though it's annoyingly hard to list all of them.) Okay the tag view is actually annoyingly glitchy. Here's the individual markets: Option 1: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-staying-on Option 2: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-staying-on-d3d4e0c5a4bf Option 3: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to Option 4: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-2d8d49de84da Option 5: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-d418485476cd Option 6: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-ee34c94728f9 Option 7: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-991cae37688e Apr 24, 2:53am: Someone on the main thread has suggested moving onto a non-Tildes codebase with plans to reimplement it later; I'm lumping that general category of idea into Option 7 (honestly I shouldn't have specified the codebase there, mea culpa.) Apr 24, 1:21pm: More option updates: I'm broadening Option 4 into "Self-Hosted Non-Federated Site", including LessWrong and a site I am not willing to name while being linked directly from Reddit, and Option 5 into "Self-Hosted Federated Site", including Brutalinks. Yeah I know I'm playing kind of fast and loose with this, but hey, as long as nobody's making their own answers for these things, I'm gonna try to keep it together.
Self-Hosted Tildes (Option 4)
Chosen
71%
Austin
Austin answered
Move The Motte onto Manifold (Option 0)
12%
ZorbaTHut
ZorbaTHut answered
Self-Hosted Tildes, Then Custom (Option 7)
4%
ZorbaTHut
ZorbaTHut answered
Self-Hosted Lotide/Hoot (Option 5)
3%
ZorbaTHut
ZorbaTHut answered
Reddit Filtered (Option 2)
3%
ZorbaTHut
ZorbaTHut answered
Third-Party Site (Option 3)
2%
ZorbaTHut
ZorbaTHut answered
Reddit Unchanged (Option 1)
2%
ZorbaTHut
ZorbaTHut answered
Self-Hosted Custom (Option 6)
2%

💬 Proven correct

Austin

Austin bought M$40a month ago

It seems like this is the option for betting on a migration to LessWrong/ForumMagnum, which seems to be trending up given discussion on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/comment/i5zumw2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Austin made M$30!
ZorbaTHut
Self-Hosted Tildes (Option 4)
71%
Austin

Austin bought M$40a month ago

It seems like this is the option for betting on a migration to LessWrong/ForumMagnum, which seems to be trending up given discussion on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/comment/i5zumw2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Austin
Move The Motte onto Manifold (Option 0)
12%
Austin

Austin bought M$100a month ago

Okay so, hear me out. Manifold isn't _exactly_ a Reddit clone yet, but we're trending in that direction with free comments. I'm fairly certain we'll also move into having something like upvoting/downvoting (more likely, we'll have direct comment tipping, and maybe the ability to punish bad comments by burning their M$, see here: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-agree-that-manifolds-comment ) And stepping back a bit - what better way to have disagreements over controversial subjects than... directly on a prediction market site? Anyways, would love to chat more with you about why you're leaving Reddit and what you're looking for in your next platform; esp if there are any features that would really move the needle for you. Happy to discuss more here, or reach out to austin@manifold.markets! (PS, thank you so much for setting up markets on all of these, it's such a huge vote of confidence in our platform and I really appreciate it! Sorry conditional prediction markets are such a subpar experience atm, we really want to make this better)
ZorbaTHut

ZorbaTHut bought M$1a month ago

I'll admit this is an interesting idea :D Austin and I ended up having a conversation on the ManifoldMarkets Discord; if you want to go read it, search for "mid-sized conditional-prediction". The tl;dr is that there's some cool stuff they have planned, but it probably won't be ready in time and I'm leery of risking our community on it, so right now there isn't a match, but there are some potential cool future integration options maybe someday assuming we're still alive at that point :V Also, you're welcome! I think prediction markets are a really cool idea and I'm hoping I get some usable info out of this; if not, it's probably just due to the difficulties in bootstrapping a userbase, and I hope you keep growing for quite a long time :)
ZorbaTHut
Self-Hosted Tildes, Then Custom (Option 7)
4%
ZorbaTHut
Self-Hosted Lotide/Hoot (Option 5)
3%
ZorbaTHut
Reddit Filtered (Option 2)
3%
ZorbaTHut
Third-Party Site (Option 3)
2%
ZorbaTHut
Reddit Unchanged (Option 1)
2%
ZorbaTHut
Self-Hosted Custom (Option 6)
2%
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