Conditional on The Motte moving to a new self-hosted site based on Tildes, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
Jan 2, 2023
M$60 bet
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See for more context. The Motte's megathreads generally get around 3000 comments per week. I'm describing "thriving" as "the megathread or its equivalent gets about 1500 comments weekly or more, while still fulfilling the spirit of the Foundation", which I'll reproduce here: > The purpose of this community is to be a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs. It is to be a place for people to examine the beliefs of others as well as their own beliefs; it is to be a place where strange or abnormal opinions and ideas can be generated and discussed fairly, with consideration and insight instead of kneejerk responses. This resolution is, by its nature, very subjective, and I'm afraid you'll just have to trust my judgement here. This market corresponds to Option 4 in the above link. It will resolve to N/A if I decide not to take this option. A general meta post listing all the options, and individual per-market options, are available at The success of this market may influence the outcome of the meta market. The tag view is currently a little glitchy; the main meta post is at and links to the others directly. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Apr 24, 1:22pm: I'm broadening this category to "based on a non-federated site", still including Tildes but also now including LessWrong. May 8, 5:22am: We have at this point effectively chosen the rDrama codebase, but that's still "based on a non-federated site", so we're in it for the long haul.