Resolution: Resolves YES if any winner of the 21 non-shorts competitive awards at this weekend's Academy Awards had a <10% probability of winning, according to Manifold, at the start of the ceremony (4PM PT). Resolves NO otherwise.

Eligibility: I will exclude the 3 shorts categories (as those are barely traded, no option should be trading crazy low there anyways, and I just don't find them interesting). That leaves (I believe) 21 competitive awards. I will use my own market for each award—contained by this dashboard for easy reference (or you can search on my profile).

This market will close before the ceremony.