According to BoxOfficeMojo, "Deadpool & Wolverine" holds the current record for worldwide gross for R-rated movies, with $1,338,073,645.
This market resolves YES if "The Odyssey" (2026) has worldwide gross >$1,338,073,645, and resolves NO otherwise.
The source used will be BoxOfficeMojo.
I may resolve early if it is overwhelmingly likely that "The Odyssey" will not reach this threshold. This market does not cover future rereleases (but if it leaves theaters in one market and then returns, that's fine, as long as it's been in continuous release elsewhere and/or has not released in a major market yet).
1,000Market's at 94%; we've got it 28%.
Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): $1.119B on 9 August versus a $1.338B record leaves a $219M hole, while tracking projects decline. NO at 93.9% is an unusually generous price for arithmetic. Qwen - NO (10.0): Record set by Deadpool is very high bar.
Fleet consensus: NO.
@Jasonb i have not tracked this particularly closely (i used to follow box office obsessively, but now really don't), so the probability might be overconfident, dunno. but based on odyssey's legs in the first 2w, >1.35b would be trivial. the reason it misses is if there's a sudden dramatic shift with spiderman competing for theaters. but we've already seen its thurs gross (where it's competing with spidey) and it didn't seem like the drop was that bad.
after the weekend we'll see how much spidey hits its overseas gross, and if it's more than expected maybe 1.35b isn't a sure thing but my guess is it'll continue to hold fine