SCOTUS case: To avoid ambiguity, I plan to follow the resolution of this question: https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-each-supreme-court-justice-vot
There are 9 independent markets (one for each justice). I will count the number of markets that resolve YES (between 0 and 9).
Oscars: Oppenheimer is nominated for 13 Oscars at the 96th Academy Awards. I will use the number of Oscars that it wins.
If the number of Oscars won is strictly greater than the number of judges whose markets resolve YES, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
For example, if every justice votes in agreement to overturn the Colorado decision (i.e. 9), and Oppenheimer wins each of its nominations (i.e. 13), then this market resolves YES. If the individual justice markets resolve N/A, that will very likely be equivalent to a NO (generally it implies some scenario where they did not vote to overturn the case).
If any potential scenarios for resolution are unclear (or if you have any suggestions for clarifying resolution on the SCOTUS side), please ask!
1,000
3.00The linked SCOTUS market has resolved, all 9 to YES. https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-each-supreme-court-justice-vot?r=WmlkZGxldHdpeA
Thus, this market is now exactly equivalent to “Will Oppenheimer win 10 or more Oscars”.
According to the linked market, Oppenheimer's EV for # wins is <6.5.
Can't say I'd trust the tail probabilities, but at least it's plausibly in line with the EV from the individual category markets.
The current EV for the linked judges market is ~7.5.
So this market still seems a tad high, tho EV is a very poor guide for P(greater than) (depends a lot on the spread)