Will a fourth film receive a CinemaScore of D+ or worse in 2024?
11
100Ṁ1370
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
NO

Context

In the past two months, three movies have received a CinemaScore of D+ or worse:

  • "Borderlands": D+

  • "Megalopolis": D+

  • "Joker: Folie à Deux": D

Scores this bad are rare! CinemaScore usually surveys movies in wide release, which are generally meant to be "audience friendly".

Resolution

This market resolves YES if another movie released in 2024 receives a CinemaScore of D+, D, D-, or F, and NO otherwise.

It only counts if it's viewable on the CinemaScore website, and the release timing is determined by "when the score is posted on the site".

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ188
2Ṁ31
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ3
5Ṁ3
Sort by:

So there’s films that I think will be bad (Red One, maybe Venom 3), but I think that badness is priced in. You need something that’s surprisingly bad to get a Cinemascore that low.

While I don’t think we’ll get another one in 2024, if we do, I feel like it’s going to be Wicked…

@mattyb agreed. only thing i'd add is that while this year was an outlier, normally the lowest cinemascores are dominated by random horror movies (often kinda forgettable ones). glancing at the release calendar i don't see a ton of likely ones (& usually those wouldn't release in oct-dec), but easy to miss. Terrifier 3? (not sure if that will play in enough theaters to get polled).

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy