Jun 2
Trump says anything about his VP being physically attractive
Trump describes his VP with the word "nice"
Trump describes his VP with the word "loyal"
Trump says the name "Melania"
VP says anything about Trump being physically attractive
VP says anything about Trump being intelligent
VP is married and says their spouse's name
Someone talks about the Bible.
Trump makes physical contact with his VP, excluding handshakes.
It lasts longer than Trump’s announcement of Mike Pence (41 minutes)
Trump says anything about his VP being smart or intelligent
Trump refers to his previous VP, Mike Pence, by name
Someone says anything about China
Trump or VP say anything about Kamala Harris
Trump says the phrase "best people"
Trump's first public announcement of his VP choice is a Truth Social post
There are six or more full sized american flags visible behind Trump or the VP
Trump or VP say the words "Biden" or "Democrat(s)"

Welcome to the Trump VP Announcement Market!

You will be able to add answers to this market, but please submit only ONE answer each, so that there is room for everyone. Your submission should begin with "Draft:", which will be edited out once it is approved. You probably don't want to trade on a submission while it is still marked as a draft, as it may be edited. Additional submission guidelines are at the bottom of the description.

Manifold will live-stream this event with this market, whenever it happens.

This market will resolve based on the first full campaign event that Donald Trump holds to introduce his running mate in the 2024 election. Previous events of this nature:

This doesn't count anything like an edited announcement video, it has to be a live event where he introduces his running mate in front of the press. If no such event takes place, this market will be cancelled. However, under the current system you will still keep any trader bonuses from answers you submit even if they are cancelled.

Submission guidelines:

  • One submission per user for now, so make it a good one! Ideally something not super likely or super unlikely, to get some trading back and forth.

  • When you add a submission, please add "Draft:" to the start so that other users know it is a draft. I'll look at each submission and edit that out once the submission is approved. Expect answers to be frequently edited or cancelled for quality control.

  • Make your submissions as clear and objective as possible. The criteria should be easy to understand without reading any comments or relying on anyone's opinion.

  • Please do not submit answers that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Be clear when a submission is about a person saying exact words, and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this. If the bet is about whether or not a general subject is raised, make this clear by using the phrase "says anything about X".

  • Submissions should be about what will happen at the event itself, not the general question of who the VP will be or when they will be announced. We have other markets for those those questions.

  • I will close submissions before the market fills up so that there will be room for more submissions when the event is closer and we know more about what might come up. Everyone will get a chance to submit a second answer when submissions re-open.

These guidelines aren't written in stone, you can potentially get away with ignoring them if your submission is really good anyways. But it's only one submission per user, and I will try to be strict about that!

If your submission is NA-ed, you don't get to do another until after submissions close and re-open. Feel free to ask questions in the comments or suggest submissions for other people to add if you already added one. Also if you want to post your idea for a submission in the comments before you submit it, I'll consider that a loose form of "dibs" and N/A anyone else's answer if they try to front-run you.

The market close time will be adjusted as necessary to close after the event is over.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Trump says the name "Melania"

I just went looking for a recent case of this to figure out what the base rate is, and all I could find is this 💀

Trump's first public announcement of his VP choice is a Truth Social post

Seems good, made some minor edits.

@ManifoldPolitics But not ideal for the livestream.

But it's only one submission per user, and I will try to be strict about that!

My apologies, I missed that rule when submitting. 😅

It lasts longer than Trump’s announcement of Mike Pence (41 minutes)

Good one! Approved!

Approved a few more now, everything in the market as of this comment is out of draft.

Trump makes physical contact with his VP, excluding handshakes.

I'm a little worried this might trade at 95%, which I'd like to avoid in general. Maybe we should edit this to be a little more specific? I feel like "shake hands" might still be at 95% though. Am I missing something?

@ManifoldPolitics I think potentially saying "excluding handshakes" might actually make this work, Turmp incidentally touched Pence after their second handshake but it's easy to imagine him not doing so. I'm going to edit that in for now, but leave the option in draft form still for a bit.

@Alistair I'd recommend selling your shares in the draft answers

Okay, removing this from draft form with the "no handshake" restriction. Probably still very likely but not certain IMO.

Someone talks about the Bible.
bought Ṁ5 Someone talks about ... YES

Do you intend this to include any use of the word "god"?

I think that it kind of has to include use of the word god, but then this makes the option almost certain to resolve yes which is undesirable. I think something should be changed here to make the option less certain, but I'm not sure what.

I'm thinking "there is a specific reference to the bible" might be better. So just the mention of god wouldn't count, but someone quoting the bible or referencing specific biblical events would. Still probably pretty likely, but no longer certain.

Still leaving it in draft form for the moment though, we've got lots of time.

I'm probably too worried about spam actually, I'll just open submissions now and see how it goes.

Draft: VP says anything about their own racial backround

I'm not sure if this is the best way to phrase this option, open to suggestions to remove ambiguity.

I think I'll leave this one in draft form, just to have the example for people to see.

[deleted — either the option updated while I was typing or my memory has failed]

@ClubmasterTransparent I'm still workshopping this one. The intent is to count someone mentioning their italian-american or hispanic-american heritage, but not just "I am from new york".

@ManifoldPolitics Actually, I think defining race is probably too tall a task to take on for the sake of this prop bet so this will be the first N/A of many.

VP is married and says their spouse's name

Is it clear that this resolves NO even if they don't currently have a spouse, as in the case of Tim Scott? That was my my intention, I'd like to avoid sub-clauses that cause N/As.

bought Ṁ10 Draft: VP says anyth... NO

@ManifoldPolitics I think I'll just edit this option to make this explicit, and remove "draft".