Welcome to the Trump VP Announcement Market!
Manifold will live-stream this event with this market, whenever it happens.
This market will resolve based on the first full campaign event that Donald Trump holds to introduce his running mate in the 2024 election. Previous events of this nature:
This doesn't count anything like an edited announcement video, it has to be a live event where he introduces his running mate in front of the press. If no such event takes place, this market will be cancelled.
Submission guidelines:
Make your submissions as clear and objective as possible. The criteria should be easy to understand without reading any comments or relying on anyone's opinion.
Please do not submit answers that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.
Be clear when a submission is about a person saying exact words, and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this. If the bet is about whether or not a general subject is raised, make this clear by using the phrase "says anything about X".
Submissions should be about what will happen at the event itself, not the general question of who the VP will be or when they will be announced. We have other markets for those those questions.
I will close submissions before the market fills up so that there will be room for more submissions when the event is closer and we know more about what might come up. Everyone will get a chance to submit a second answer when submissions re-open.
The market close time will be adjusted as necessary to close after the event is over.
Thanks for trading everyone! Sorry for the delay, other news kept breaking. For the final controversial options, my ruling is that saying Trump was correct about something is not the same as saying he was intelligent so that option resolves to NO. The attack on judges option seemed too vaguely phrased to me to fully justify either resolution, so I resolved it to N/A.
ping @mods
Could you resolve the following options, please? - These are uncontroversial and @ManifoldPolitics stated that you are allowed to resolve in the comment down below. Thanks to @PatrickMcCann, who has linked the transcript (https://www.c-span.org/video/?537186-1/fmr-pres-trump-sen-jd-vance-campaign-grand-rapids-mi). These are easy to prove by simply using the search function. (You need to expand every section beforehand.)
NO
Trump describes his VP with the word "nice"
Trump describes his VP with the word "loyal"
Trump refers to his previous VP, Mike Pence, by name
Either Trump or VP say "conservative values"
Trump says the phrase "best people"
YES:
Someone says anything about China
Trump or VP say anything about Kamala Harris
ping @Joshua Reminder: Please resolve the other options when you have time.
thanks Lion for your work on helping with resolution - I've resolved the ones in your list (cc: @Joshua @ManifoldPolitics)
@shankypanky @Joshua @ManifoldPolitics Some further non-controversial ones:
NO
Trump says the name "Melania"
YES
Trump or VP say the words "Biden" or "Democrat(s)"
It lasts longer than Trump’s announcement of Mike Pence (41 minutes)
The first and the second one are easy to prove from the transcript, and the third one is easy to prove by checking any recording of the speech (the speech lasted over 1.5h).
I'd argue that everything apart from "VP says anything about Trump being intelligent" and "Donald Trump makes an unrelated attack on a judge or other legal official involved in one of his cases during the announcement" are also non-controversial, but if the resolver wants to do proper due diligence that is of course fine.
@shankypanky Thank you 🧡
@sanyero Yeah, I forgot those three 🙃. The other ones are cases where you'd need to watch or read the full speech (which is close to 2 hours) to resolve them, and I don't know how many mods did that. Sometimes it's better to stay on the safe side with mod resolutions. But Joshua has resolved all of them by now, so it's done 🥳
@ManifoldPolitics Would be nice to free up my mana with resolutions. When do you think you'll get around to listening to the full thing? Otherwise we can resolve all the negatives like Trump not calling Vance "loyal" at least.
@ManifoldPolitics "on every single one of those issues, Joe Biden was wrong and Donald j Trump was right. even though he was a real estate developer in New York, he knew instinctively what the country needed and how to put the interests of the citizens of the country first"
Transcript:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?537186-1/fmr-pres-trump-sen-jd-vance-campaign-grand-rapids-mi
“Knew instinctively” is imbuing Trump with some sort of innate patriot judgment, not a high IQ. The words intelligent, smart, or any other synonyms were not used. Politicians frequently comment on judgment rather than intelligence, so as not to evoke feelings about education level and nerdiness. Trump is actually unusual in that he talks about IQ a lot (as a vibes based personal opinion, not as something he actually understands).
Instinctive awareness of things is a form of intelligence
Also it says "anything", intentionally drawing it as broad. If you were to somehow take the comments as saying he is unintelligent, it still resolves yes.
Vance contrasts Trump's decision making ability with Biden, saying on every issue he was right because of his intuition ability
Lacking an elaboration from the question creator in advance, I can't know whether that broad of a definition of intelligence would be the intent. Some people consider intelligence and intuition at odds philosophically. The blog post is taking a contrarian viewpoint. That doesn't mean it's wrong, but it does mean it's subjective and not obivous or universal for those to be considered the same thing.
@Kraalnaxx transcript here
https://www.c-span.org/video/?537186-1/fmr-pres-trump-sen-jd-vance-campaign-grand-rapids-mi
Only says Ohio once
It happened once per appearance. He said "southern Ohio" in the main speech, and mentioned the state again when introducing Trump later. So twice overall.