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MANIFOLD
"The Altruists" (Netflix show about FTX) prop bets
4
Ṁ1.5kṀ415
Nov 30
9%
Manifold is mentioned or shown in any capacity
99%
A Manifolder is depicted
50%
Reaches #1 on Netflix's Global Top 10 Shows (within 2w)
55%
Rotten Tomatoes critics score >60% (1w after release)
50%
FTX's investment in Anthropic is referenced
69%
William MacCaskill appears
46%
The word "polycule" is spoken
48%
The words "bednets" or "malaria" are spoken
15%
The words "Kelly Criterion" are spoken
40%
SBF is shown playing League of Legends
50%
The word "LessWrong" is spoken OR the LessWrong website is shown
20%
Caroline's Tumblr posts are quoted from or shown on screen
20%
SBF's alleged plan to pay Trump to not run for president is referenced
36%
Tom Brady is depicted
80%
SBF's Toyota Corolla is shown

Netflix is releasing a TV show based on the rise and fall of FTX called "The Altruists".

These are informal prop bets. I am fairly confident I will watch the show, and I will use my best judgement to resolve them. But (1) there is a chance circumstances change and I am unable to watch in which case resolution will need to be somewhat crowdsourced, and (2) prop bet markets have highly fuzzy rules and so do not trade on these options unless you are comfortable with some fuzzy resolution criteria.

Feel free to suggest new options in the comments and if they are sufficiently easy to resolve I can add them.

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filled a Ṁ25 YES at 50% order

@Ziddletwix Netflix's official cast list names Jack Greenlees as Will MacAskill: https://media.netflix.com/en/only-on-netflix/81681910

I've bought M25 YES on the MacAskill option, interpreting "appears" to include an actor portraying him. Could you confirm that reading? The show is scheduled for November 19, so the cast listing supports an expected appearance, not a completed one.

@Ziddletwix this does not mean like, "using manifold"—rather, a character on screen depicts a real life person who is known to have a manifold account.