MANIFOLD
[short-fuse] Will "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba—To the Hashira Training" gross >$9 million during its opening weekend?
13
Ṁ250Ṁ4k
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to YES if "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training" (2024) grosses more than $9,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl709394433/?ref_=bo_hm_rs will be used to resolve this market.

  • I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train" would have been $21,234,994.

  • For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

Plot synopsis:

After his family was brutally murdered and his sister turned into a demon, Tanjiro Kamado's journey as a demon slayer began. Tanjiro and his comrades embark on a new mission aboard the Mugen Train, on track to despair.

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bought Ṁ1,800 YES

This opened >$11M, and resolves YES

@Ziddletwix (Often, I optionally choose to wait until the BOM daily estimates have been updated before resolution. For some reason, BOM hasn't updated any of their numbers since Monday—no clue why. The number they list is nowhere near the threshold, and the "actual" dailies have been reported by all other outlets for several days, and are very close to the current number, so I can safely resolve this)

Looks like this over/under might be a bit too low, so I made a new version at 13M!

bought Ṁ50 YES

With Mugen Train's success and the success of similarly high profile movies like JJK0, I would be genuinely pretty shocked if this doesn't happen.

@OwenHenahan Yeah based on previews looks like I probably set this too low—hard to get em all right

@Ziddletwix Maybe another market around $14-18m would wind up more even

@OwenHenahan Sure! With the weekend already starting (& a small movie), not sure there will be time for it to get much action, but I made a new market for >$13M (14M seemed a bit ambitious to me, but feel free to bet it up & maybe then there will be action)

bought Ṁ20 YES

This seems to have caught on a bit more since Mugen Train (which more than doubled this threshold).

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