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@traders In HOKUSAI vs ANDY WARHOL, while technically bidding is still open for the Warhol, so it could still make a comeback, the Hokusai has a pretty huge lead (it cleared its upper estimate), so it's probably still undervalued here. Only a few days left to place your bets!

@traders Auctions are back! This time, there are three:

• The provocative street artist Banksy versus the French impressionist James Tissot.

• A duel between two Nepalese paintings from Senator Dianne Feinstein's private collection.

• The legendary Japanese printmaker Hokusai versus the pop art master, Andy Warhol.

I also made a dashboard to track all of them, although we'll see if I can find enough interesting auctions to keep it populated. Have fun, bet away, and let me know if you spot any mistakes.

The auction is done! Sotheby's boasts of a total sale price of 101,473,294 GBP. You can watch the livestream here (my first time checking it out, the few min I saw were pretty entertaining tbh).

Bacon went first, and quietly sold after only the 6th bid. Initially Monet looked to be in a similar spot—but after a long pause, and a "fair warning", the bids kept streaming in.

With the dust settled, on the website I see the following:

• MONET: Lot Sold 7,748,300 GBP

• BACON: Lot Sold 6,829,100 GBP

Thus, following the description, I plan to resolve this in favor of MONET. I'll wait to do that until tomorrow, in case anyone has any concerns with that resolution (please speak up).

Tough beat for Bacon (the painting I greatly preferred), but luckily there's another auction market running tomorrow! (VAN GOPH vs KIRCHNER).

@Ziddletwix Here are the results on the website:

@Ziddletwix No one has raised any concerns, so I'm going to resolve this in favor of MONET (congratulations to him, I guess).

I'd like to make some more of these, but I want to keep them consistently high quality, and none of the auctions for the next few weeks (i.e. with lots & estimates posted) seemed as interesting as these, so I'll probably wait a few weeks until I find an upcoming auction worth actually betting on! (Although if you see anything, LMK, or feel free to make your own market).

The auction is tomorrow! This has been fun to track, so I made a sequel, for the March 7th Christie's auction: VINCENT VAN GOGH vs ERNST LUDWIG KIRCHNER. If you want to bet on a fresh pair of iconic artists, check it out.

(That's only a day later than this Sotheby's auction, so get your bets in fast if you're interested! In the future I'll make some markets for auctions with less of a time crunch, but at the moment I didn't see anything posted on the calendar yet that was quite as spicy as these two).

FUN FACTS:

• The most expensive Monet ever sold at auction is "Meules (Haystacks)", sold in 2019 for $110 million. You can watch the tense auction on YouTube.

• The highest sale of a Francis Bacon work is "Three Studies of Lucian Freud", for $142 million, at the time the highest price attained at any auction.

(I again much prefer the Bacon—I swear every museum has another one of that Haystacks series, I don't get it)

The Vigée Lebrun price you quote includes fees, whereas the estimate is the hammer price. If these sell for the same hammer price, the posted price for the Bacon will be higher because the fees are slightly different (in particular artist's resale rights apply to the Bacon).

@MichaelSavage Awesome, thanks for the heads up! This is the exact sort of detail I'd like to be aware of =).

My instinct is that it's best to stick with my written description ("whatever is displayed by the auction page") and use the "posted price", so that I'm not changing the question after people have bet.

But if you think that this is misleading in its own way, i.e. it doesn't really keep with the "spirit of the question", I'd be open to changing the description & instead using the hammer price.

Any thoughts?

(My guess is that most bettors weren't aware of the distinction regardless, so this isn't a huge deal, but my usual instinct is to take my written description literally unless there's good reason to change).

@Ziddletwix don't worry, you'll be surprised how many buyers are caught out by the fees too! I bet based on your literal description, so of course I don't want it to change ;-).

@MichaelSavage Going forward, is it possible to easily check the exact buyer's premium? Or is it just that you can look at the properties of the sale (e.g. resale right) and based on that guess which will be relatively higher?

At a quick glance, it seems fairly hard to reliably get hammer price/buyer's premium for every piece from a consistent source, so yup that makes me lean towards the easier rule of "whatever is posted on the sotheby's website". (Not sure if there are cases where that price wouldn't be posted).

@Ziddletwix it's quite complex because there are different premiums between auctions and stepped rates, and then different extras (eg tax on the premium and sometimes on the hammer price, resale rights). What's posted on the website is easier, but you can work backwards or watch the auction livestream. Price will always be posted if it sells. In my view it should resolve n/a if one lot is withdrawn before the sale, but if one fails to meet the reserve and the other sells it should be resolved for the sold lot. Reserve will never be greater than the low estimate, but it can be lower (& isn't published, except sometimes for rare zero-reserve lots).

@MichaelSavage Great, thanks! Yeah given all that I think it's fine to stick to "what's posted on the website" (I usually try to find the most consistent numerical source I can, rather than hunting down a number in different ways).

Yeah, in the case that one sells & the other doesn't, my intention was to resolve in favor of the one that does sell. I'll add that as a bullet point to clarify that case. (And yes N/A if neither sells). (I wasn't sure if there were any weird cases where both sell but I can only find a price on the website for one, but for now that seems unlikely).

@Ziddletwix Actually my original intention was that if one was withdrawn before the auction, I'd count that the same as it not selling (as I wasn't sure I'd be able to distinguish the cases). So if one doesn't have a listed price, it resolves to the other. But if it's usually possible to tell that it was withdrawn before the auction, I do prefer resolving N/A. So I added that as an additional bullet point.

TLDR: If one sells and the other doesn't, it resolves to the sold painting. If I can identify that one was withdrawn before the auction, then I agree it makes sense to resolve it N/A. (When writing the question I wasn't sure I'd be able to identify that).

@Ziddletwix I think that's right - and yes, withdrawn lots are noted before the sale ('saleroom notices' link at the top). Incidentally I saw both pictures at the weekend, though I don't think that gives me any special insight in this case.

I asked ChatGPT (free version, I'm not made of money) to analyze these paintings & provide some additional context for us simpletons.

CLAUDE MONET - Arbres au bord de l'eau, printemps à Giverny

"Arbres au bord de l'eau, printemps à Giverny" by Claude Monet showcases his signature Impressionist style, depicting vibrant spring foliage and water reflections with loose brushwork and bold colors. The asymmetrical composition draws the viewer into the scene, capturing the transient effects of light and atmosphere. It exemplifies Monet's mastery in conveying the beauty of nature and solidifies his legacy as a leading figure in the Impressionist movement.

FRANCIS BACON - Study of George Dyer

"Study of George Dyer" by Francis Bacon is a striking portrayal of his muse, George Dyer. Bacon's distorted and visceral depiction challenges conventional portraiture, conveying raw emotion and psychological depth. The use of bold colors and frenetic brushwork adds to the intensity of the piece, while the asymmetrical composition creates a sense of unease. Bacon's exploration of human vulnerability and existential angst is palpable in this haunting portrait, cementing his status as one of the most influential figurative painters of the 20th century.