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MANIFOLD
HOKUSAI vs ANDY WARHOL: which artwork will sell for more at their upcoming Christie's auctions? [100M subsidy]
20
Ṁ580Ṁ14k
resolved Mar 28
100%99.9%
KATSUSHIKA HOKUSAI - Sanka hakuu (Storm below the summit)
0.1%
ANDY WARHOL - Rebel Without A Cause (James Dean)

This market is a duel between two works by two famous artists with very different backgrounds.

Katushika Hokusai was a 19th century printmaker who created one of the most enduring images in visual art: "The Great Wave". Andy Warhol was a 20th century American genre-spanning visual artist, most closely associated with the Pop Art movement.

This market resolves to the artwork which the Christies website lists with a higher sale value at the auction.

  • I will convert GBP to USD to determine the higher sale value.

  • Note the upper end of the Hokusai estimate is slightly higher, although the artworks can easily sell for well below or above the estimate range, so this is only a small edge.

Resolution details:

  • Example from a past auction: this painting by Gentileschi (a personal fav) has a "price realised" of USD 982,800. This is the number I will use—whatever is displayed by the auction page.

  • Edge cases:

    • If either painting is withdrawn before the auction, or I am unable to determine the sale price, it resolves N/A.

    • If one fails to sell at the auction, it resolves to the other.

    • If there's a tie (or they both fail to sell at the auction), both resolve at 50%. .

    • If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.

KATSUSHIKA HOKUSAI - Sanka hakuu (Storm below the summit)

Shower below the Summit, Sanka hakuu, as the print is officially titled, is one of three absolute acknowledged masterpieces in Hokusai’s series of Thirty-six Views of Mount Fuji, Fugaku sanjūrokkei... It is perfectly, and quite exceptionally, in adherence with the original concept of Hokusai’s project.

ANDY WARHOL - Rebel Without A Cause (James Dean)

Rebel Without a Cause 355 is inspired by the Rebel Without a Cause original 1955 movie billboard, with a bit of a twist. Warhol’s advertisement best reflects the versions of the promotional poster released in Japan with script filling the left side of the composition. While much of his oeuvre focuses on American consumerism, Warhol’s use of the Japanese poster’s aesthetic is a visual reminder of the universality of media consumption and glorification. (Source)

For more art auctions, check out the dashboard.

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@traders Resolving in favor to HOKUSAI. Congrats to him!

There are tons more auction markets to play with, including ROCKWELL vs BURCHFIELD, and even WEMBANYAMA vs GIANNIS (ok not art, but jerseys).

@traders The auction is done! Hokusai sailed past its estimates, with USD 214,200. Warhol had a slow start, but there was a flurry of bidding at the end and it performed quite well, GBP 151,200. Converting that to USD, I get USD 198,886. So, still comfortably less than the Hokusai. So I plan to resolve this in favor of Hokusai, unless there are any concerns.

There are a bunch more open auctions at the dashboard. E.g. RENOIR vs KUO-SUNG (I quite like both pieces)

@Ziddletwix sounds good

bought Ṁ1 NO

i would much rather have the hokusai but given the estimates 80% sounds a little high

@simoj Agreed! But I'm usually pretty baffled by Warhol on every level (actually fwiw less opposed to seeing it in a museum, but the intentionally mass produced pop art style seems so antithetical to anything I'd want to actually "own"??), and there's clearly a trackrecord of people paying medium sums for even forgettable/unknown Warhol stuff. So Hokusai seems likely to win, but I don't think you can let the odds get too high.

New auctions just dropped—Christie's posted the lots for their April 6th Impressionist auction in Paris. Here are two new markets: (1) Henri Matisse vs Salvador Dali, & (2) Camille Pisarro vs Marc Chagall.