These options resolve YES if the new pope says the exact sequence of words during their first Sunday Angelus address as pontiff.
The weekly Angelus address is typically delivered in Italian. Thus, I will use the transcript uploaded to the Vatican.va website for resolution.
Examples:
Transcript for Pope Francis' first Sunday Angelus address as pontiff.
Thus, I will only be including what's in the transcript (which may or may not include the prayer, greetings, or etc).
You can add your own options, but note: (1) I will be strict with resolutions & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.
I don't know how long it will take for the transcript to be uploaded, & the market may close before then.
Resolution rules:
Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".
Needs to match on tense, pluralization, & possessives: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".
However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions also count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").
An abbreviation is its own word: "MAGA" does not match "Make America Great Again", "LGBT" does not match "LGBTQ".
Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" matches "January sixth".
To add flexibility to an answer, use parentheses or an "or". So " 'Free lunch(es)' or 'school lunch(es)' " matches "free lunches", "school lunch", & etc.
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Cool, I've made up for like 6% of the mana I lost by betting against Francis dying!
@ArmandodiMatteo I only regret not looking up which gospel would be read from today -- if I had, I would have bidden "John" up much higher.
Wait, wait, wait. What language is this address usually given in?
[edit: I need to read the description.]
@ArmandodiMatteo As per the description, options can only refer to the words themselves, NOT their usage. I would edit it, but people have already bet based on the original version, so I think it's best to N/A and not make them bet on the wrong thing. Feel free to resubmit if you'd like a version that's just words.
@Ziddletwix done -- the chances he'll refer to Claude or Gemini but not to ChatGPT are negligible anyway
@TheAllMemeingEye "John Paul II", "John XXIII", "Gospel of John", "John the Baptist", "John 1:2-3" would all match this, right?
@ArmandodiMatteo yes, those all count. I actually edited the option to put “John” first so people don’t fall for the fallacy of indexing to a bunch of overly specific options and miss the umbrella one at the end (this has happened before!)
@ArmandodiMatteo yes absolutely, I was testing the hypothesis that including both normal and wacky stuff in one option causes traders to mistakenly think it's unlikely lol
@TheAllMemeingEye Apparently it does -- that option had a ridiculous price before I bought all those YES shares. But I wanted to ask just to be extra safe -- I've lost count of the times I lost lots of mana because I had bought lots of shares in what I thought was a terribly mispriced market but I turned out to have just misread the resolution criteria.
PLS STOP BETTING TO 99% this is about the "Sunday Angelus Address" please read title and/or description!
The weekly Angelus address is typically delivered in Italian. Thus, I will use the transcript uploaded to the Vatican.va website for resolution.
Examples:
Transcript for Pope Francis' first Sunday Angelus address as pontiff.
Thus, I will only be including what's in the transcript (which may or may not include the prayer, greetings, or etc).
@Ziddletwix Oh I guess I should add a word there to clarify it's the english one, though the link should clarify that
@hakagie i reserve the right to N/A options that i feel are sufficiently trivial/pointless, please do not add options like these.