Which MCU movies will "Deadpool & Wolverine" outgross worldwide?
Basic
29
6.9k
Oct 27
98.8%
>$476 million - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
98.7%
>$585 million - Iron Man
93%
>$677 million - Doctor Strange
90%
>$773 million - Guardians of the Galaxy
86%
>$845 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
82%
>$880 million - Spider-Man: Homecoming
74%
>$955 million - Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
55%
>$1.128 billion - Captain Marvel
33%
>$1.214 billion - Iron Man 3
20%
>$1.402 billion - Avengers: Age of Ultron
12%
>$1.912 billion - Spider-Man: No Way Home

These markets will resolve based on the (cumulative) "WORLDWIDE" gross for "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) listed by BoxOfficeMojo three months after release (i.e. October 26th): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/

Details

  • I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.

  • For simplicity, I rounded down the gross of previous MCU films to the nearest million. These numbers (displayed in the current market options [1]) are what I will compare to the "Deadpool & Wolverine" gross (not the full precision available elsewhere).

  • I prefer to resolve options NO once the result is mathematically certain—to formalize this, if 5x the movie's latest weekly gross (for the remaining market duration) wouldn't be enough to cross the threshold (and there are no extraneous circumstances). [2]

Example

  • The "WORLDWIDE" gross for "Deadpool 2" (2018) was $785,896,632.

  • With this gross:

    • The [>$773 million - Guardians of the Galaxy] option would resolve YES.

    • The [>$845 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3] option would resolve NO.

"Deadpool & Wolverine" releases on July 26th. Its trailer (supposedly) set the record for the most viewed trailer within 24 hours.

[1]. Unless I made an obvious mistake in copying these down, in which let me know and I will try to correct it.

[2]. As this was added to the market description, if there are any complaints from earlier bettors I can of course just leave the options open for the full duration.

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