Which MCU movies will "Deadpool & Wolverine" outgross worldwide?
➕
Plus
54
Ṁ37k
resolved Oct 26
Resolved
YES
>$1.128 billion - Captain Marvel
Resolved
YES
>$1.214 billion - Iron Man 3
Resolved
YES
>$1.334 billion - Black Panther
Resolved
NO
>$1.402 billion - Avengers: Age of Ultron
Resolved
NO
>$1.515 billion - The Avengers
Resolved
NO
>$1.912 billion - Spider-Man: No Way Home
Resolved
YES
>$476 million - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Resolved
YES
>$585 million - Iron Man
Resolved
YES
>$677 million - Doctor Strange
Resolved
YES
>$773 million - Guardians of the Galaxy
Resolved
YES
>$845 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Resolved
YES
>$880 million - Spider-Man: Homecoming
Resolved
YES
>$955 million - Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

These markets will resolve based on the (cumulative) "WORLDWIDE" gross for "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) listed by BoxOfficeMojo three months after release (i.e. October 26th): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/

Details

  • I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.

  • For simplicity, I rounded down the gross of previous MCU films to the nearest million. These numbers (displayed in the current market options [1]) are what I will compare to the "Deadpool & Wolverine" gross (not the full precision available elsewhere).

  • I prefer to resolve options NO once the result is mathematically certain—to formalize this, if 5x the movie's latest weekly gross (for the remaining market duration) wouldn't be enough to cross the threshold (and there are no extraneous circumstances). [2]

Example

  • The "WORLDWIDE" gross for "Deadpool 2" (2018) was $785,896,632.

  • With this gross:

    • The [>$773 million - Guardians of the Galaxy] option would resolve YES.

    • The [>$845 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3] option would resolve NO.

"Deadpool & Wolverine" releases on July 26th. Its trailer (supposedly) set the record for the most viewed trailer within 24 hours.

[1]. Unless I made an obvious mistake in copying these down, in which let me know and I will try to correct it.

[2]. As this was added to the market description, if there are any complaints from earlier bettors I can of course just leave the options open for the full duration.

Check out the "Deadpool & Wolverine" dashboard

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@Ziddletwix any chance you could resolve Captain Marvel and Iron Man 3? Trying to free up some mana :)

sold Ṁ6 YES

Could resolve YES till 1.25 billion.

sold Ṁ5 NO

@Ziddletwix do you plan to resolve some of the items?

bought Ṁ35 YES

@traders

don't see many other good markets tracking deadpool's final WW total, so I added options for ~1.3B & ~1.5B!

adding some more liquidity to this so it will trade a bit better post-pivot—it'll take a day to trickle in

@traders I made an opening weekend market with proper liquidity for each option—place your bets now: /Ziddletwix/how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20

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