How many views will Mr Beast's "In 10 Minutes This Room Will Explode!" video have after 1 month?
12
107
465
May 29
4%
>100 million
1%
>115 million
1.1%
>130 million
1.8%
>145 million
1%
>160 million

How many views will YouTube display for the embedded video when I check on May 27th, one month after release?

Context

  • Mr. Beast has 252M subscribers, and is widely considered the biggest star on the platform.

  • He is famous for his frenetic editing style—this video appears to be trying something slightly new, with a "real time" structure.

  • Currently, his most viewed video is "$456,000 Squid Game In Real Life!", with 600M views.

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bought Ṁ50 >100 million YES

Will all true answers resolve YES? For example will ”> 100 million" resolve yes if the video gets 130 million?

bought Ṁ30 >160 million NO

@Calvin6b82 yup! these are independent options. so any number can resolve YES or NO. it's just a flexible way to express probability over a range (that's less sensitive to bucketing so that only one bucket can resolve YES)

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