Best Picture nominees? (2026 Oscars)
78
23kṀ150kJan 21
99%
Hamnet
99%
One Battle After Another
98.9%
Sinners
98%
Marty Supreme
97%
Frankenstein
96%
Sentimental Value
85%
Bugonia
84%
Train Dreams
80%
It Was Just an Accident
74%
The Secret Agent
20%
F1
16%
Weapons
9%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
9%
No Other Choice
6%
Jay Kelly
6%
Wicked: For Good
5%
Eddington
4%
The Smashing Machine
3%
The Testament of Ann Lee
3%
A House of Dynamite
The 98th Academy Awards—currently scheduled for March 15th, 2026—will honor movies released in 2025.
This market will close before nominations are announced on January 22nd.
The current rules stipulate that 10 films will be nominated for Best Picture.
OSCARS 2026 DASHBOARD
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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If you want to bet simultaneously on all the low probability nominees, you can get a good price here:
/Ziddletwix/will-there-be-a-surprising-best-pic
(Note: it resolves based on Kalshi, not this market.)
@traders It's October and Oscars season is picking up! Here are the (higher liquidity) markets for the Best Actor & Best Actress nominees:
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35% chance