Resolution:

This market resolves YES if any of the nominees for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars have a <20% probability on Kalshi on the day prior to the announcement OR they are missing from that market. Resolves NO otherwise.

Context:

• Last year, 9 of the nominees were not "surprising" by this metric ("Nickel Boys" was trading around ~50%, and the other 8 were higher). However, "I'm Still Here" was missing (only 9 options resolved YES), and thus an equivalent market would have resolved YES for the 2025 nominees.

  • I think this is a fairly reasonable threshold for "surprising"—Kalshi tries to include all the most likely options, and "I'm Still Here" would almost certainly have traded far below 20% (and this year, the market is even more comprehensive).

  • But note that my definition is a higher bar than just "the 10 most likely movies"—e.g., last year "Sing Sing" was trading slightly higher than "Nickel Boys" and didn't make it, but that by itself doesn't make "Nickel Boys" a sufficiently surprising nomination (the market considered it quite likely).

• At the time of market creation, potential nominees that would qualify as "surprising" include "No Other Choice" (~17%), "Avatar: Fire and Ash" (~12%), & "Jay Kelly" (~12%), but not "Wicked: For Good" (~38%) (this is not the list that will be used for resolution, it's just an example).

• Most likely, movies will be well above or well below 20%, so it's unlikely we have edge cases on what exactly gets counted. If we get a close call, I will do my best to take an "average market price" for the day prior to announcement (I haven't looked into the Kalshi data yet so I won't pre-define exactly how that works—bettors beware—but I'll do my best to follow standard practices).

• The 98th Academy Awards will honor movies released in 2025. This market may close before the announcements.

OSCARS 2026 DASHBOARD