MANIFOLD
Best performing AI model on Prediction Arena, as of Jan 27?
41
Ṁ1kṀ7.8k
resolved Jan 27
100%30%
GLM 4.7
66%
Claude Opus 4.5
0.8%
Grok 4.1 Fast Reasoning
0.9%
Gemini 3 Pro
1.7%
GPT 5.2

Context:

Resolution:

I will check the leaderboard ~around noon PT, Jan 27 (two weeks after market creation), and resolve to whichever of the 5 models included in this market ranks highest.

Details:

I have limited it to just the 5 main starting models (excluding "Mystery Model Alpha", as I don't know what that is), and no new options will be added to this market. Thus, this is not about "what model will be #1 on the leaderboard", it's about which of these 5 specific models will be ranked highest (they might add other models that end up ranking higher, or the mystery model might be #1).

If this competition is halted within a week of market creation, all options N/A. If it's taken after at least one week (but prior to resolution), I'll use the last available leaderboard ranking if possible, or otherwise N/A.

I'm not familiar with the site's methodology, so if you see any strange edge cases, LMK.

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reposted

@Ziddletwix r

resolves GLM

@prismatic this is what i see as of 11:21PT. so GLM would win.

but i said "around noon PT". so if this is the closest i'm able to check, i'd resolve GLM, but i'll try to take a screenshot closer to noon. (or someone else can submit a screenshot right around noon, and i'll use that to resolve). i'll try to get it within a few min of noon, but no promises

@Ziddletwix oops I forgot abt time zones. If I remember I’ll try

@Ziddletwix

ok i checked right around noon and the results are the exact same, don't think it's updaed since last time. resolves to GLM

sold Ṁ15 YES

@Ziddletwix does it all resolve no if mystery model (def totally not grok) wins?

@prismatic this case is covered by the description. Is it unclear?

sold Ṁ50 NO
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