Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" in 2022?

closes Dec 31

13%

chance

Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of $1 million [1] for anyone who provides information on Tether's backing has so far bot been claimed. On the other hand, Tether is very useful for trading cryptocurrencies, and many in the business probably do not care about whether it is actually backed, as long as it serves its purpose. This market resolves YES if the value of one USDT is less than 0.9 US Dollars for more than one (consecutive) week of the year 2022 (as reported by [2]). [1] https://hindenburgresearch.com/tether/ [2] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

Sort by:

Ago Lajko

is predicting YES at 17%

Alameda had a large Tether holding: https://cointelegraph.com/news/two-firms-account-for-the-majority-of-tether-received-report
Interesting patio11 thread https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1593432880004202496
I'd not be surprised if there were new documents surfacing in the next period during the clean up process stating a bunch of the Tether Alameda bought was paid for by FTT tokens.

Pranav

bought Ṁ200 of NO

back to $1: https://www.coinbase.com/price/tether

Gigacasting

is predicting NO at 24%

Still no.

Gigacasting

is predicting NO at 20%

Still no.

Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 of NO

New audit: https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/1np5dpcwuHrWJ4AgUgI3Vn/e0dac722de3cea07766e05c52773748b/Tether_Assurance_Consolidated_Reserves_Report_2022-03-31__3_.pdf

Zhao Nan

is predicting YES at 18%

@Gigacasting That's not an audit, that's an attestation. Same thing they always did, inlcuding the times where they were later found to be lying about their assets. I don't see how this changes the evaluation.

Gigacasting

bought Ṁ98 of NO

This is fully backed (or at worst, they might lose a little on commercial paper, and be only 99.x% backed). Even when they weren't fully backed, it was basically 99% backed.…