Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" in 2022?
13%
chance
Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of $1 million [1] for anyone who provides information on Tether's backing has so far bot been claimed. On the other hand, Tether is very useful for trading cryptocurrencies, and many in the business probably do not care about whether it is actually backed, as long as it serves its purpose. This market resolves YES if the value of one USDT is less than 0.9 US Dollars for more than one (consecutive) week of the year 2022 (as reported by [2]). [1] https://hindenburgresearch.com/tether/ [2] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
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AgoLajko avatar
Ago Lajko
is predicting YES at 17%

Alameda had a large Tether holding: https://cointelegraph.com/news/two-firms-account-for-the-majority-of-tether-received-report
Interesting patio11 thread https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1593432880004202496
I'd not be surprised if there were new documents surfacing in the next period during the clean up process stating a bunch of the Tether Alameda bought was paid for by FTT tokens.

Pranav avatar
Pranav
bought Ṁ200 of NO
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 24%
Still no.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 20%
Still no.
ZhaoNan avatar
Zhao Nan
is predicting YES at 18%
@Gigacasting That's not an audit, that's an attestation. Same thing they always did, inlcuding the times where they were later found to be lying about their assets. I don't see how this changes the evaluation.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ98 of NO
This is fully backed (or at worst, they might lose a little on commercial paper, and be only 99.x% backed). Even when they weren't fully backed, it was basically 99% backed.…
ZhaoNan avatar
Zhao Nan
is predicting YES at 17%
@Gigacasting Why do you think so?
AgoLajko avatar
Ago Lajko
is predicting YES at 17%
ZhaoNan avatar
Zhao Nan
is predicting YES at 68%
Yeah, it was quite exciting! Maybe my resolution criteria were a little too strict, but I'm not going to adapt them, ofc.
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
is predicting YES at 43%
Tether spiked down to 95 today
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ15 of YES
We should make this market a stablecoin :D