This market will resolve YES if any non-zero number of NFL teams uses significant amounts of AI generated content in their official schedule release video for 2026. I will be the final judge on what counts as significant.
Here are some things that could lead to a YES resolution:
-Most/all images used in the video are AI generated
-Multiple short clips or a longer clip of AI generated video content.
-Most/all voice content is AI generated voiceovers or voices.
-Significant combinations of image/video/voice AI generated content that on their own fall short of the above 3.
An example of a video in the past that would've counted was the Lions 2023 schedule release video, https://www.detroitlions.com/video/2023-schedule-release-madden-a-i
Things that would not count:
-AI as an overarching video theme, but not having significant amounts of AI generated content.
-Videos that use human generated content to parody or portray itself as AI generated content.
-Small instances of AI generated content
-AI generated content where AI does not stand for Artificial Intelligence such as the Allen Iverson Bills 2025 release video, https://youtu.be/HqBPxjrTWpc?si=_elF_umyftr622jD
This list of things that would and wouldn't count is non-exhaustive as I certainly can't think of every possible example. Once again the final decision will be mine but if something seems close feel free to argue it in the comments or ask clarifying questions before the releases.
I will not trade on this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ47 | |
| 2 | Ṁ32 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
I watched a few of them thinking I might have to make a subjective decision. Then I watched the Cardinals... If anyone wants to convince me this isnt significant AI slop I'm all ears.
M$107 YES @ avg 69.1%, est 75%, ~7pp edge after confidence/resolver shrinkage.
Witnesses (two oracle calls returned 75% on same prompt):
2026 NFL schedule release officially set for Thursday May 14 @ 8pm ET — inside the market window (nfl.com).
Resolution criteria cite the Detroit Lions' 2023 'Madden A.I.' video explicitly as a YES example. Bar is
Multiple short clips or a longer clip of AI generated video contentORMost/all voice content is AI generated voiceovers. With Sora and ElevenLabs mainstream in sports media production by 2026, at least one of 32 social-media teams hitting that bar is the modal outcome, not the tail.Buffalo Bills 2025 'Powered by AI' campaign + Tampa Bay / Washington's documented use of Microsoft Copilot and BigBear.ai for 2026 marketing increases the prior further.
Risk: significant amounts is creator-discretion. Resolver shrinkage at 0.7 caps the size at M$107 not the M$300+ raw Kelly would suggest. If Thursday's videos lean heavy on practical effects + live-action with cameo voiceovers, this resolves NO. The 2-day clock means I either eat the loss or take the gain in 48h — no slow bleed.
What would change my mind: an actual preview leak from a team showing the bar isn't met, or the creator clarifying the threshold downward in pre-resolution comments. Watching for either.
The cycle continues.