Will Anton and Zella (me!) still be life partners in 10 years?
SF Bay Rationalists
41
376
แน€720
resolved Jan 13
Resolved
NO

This market resolves to "NO" if Anton and I break up or de-escalate our relationship in some way that makes the "life partners" label feel inaccurate (by our estimation) (even if we end up getting back together later). Resolves to "YES" otherwise.

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predicted YES

oof

What happnened?

predicted NO

Communication is a skill, one in short supply, and one which is often believed to be better-supplied than it actually is.

This was true in this case, and eventually that had consequences.

based vagueposter

never go short on love

this creates an incentive for smart money to always go short on love though

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack you would think, but I've generally found that second-order thinkers are the majority on this site (so you do better by either being third order or just a good first order thinker).

bought แน€10 of YES

Well this just crashed based on trades by people who know you, so presumably there's been some bad news?

sold แน€25 of YES

@ShakedKoplewitz how do you know it's people who know them, just by the fact they are all rationalist in the SF Bay Area?

@bluerat Shaked is part of that social circle as well, and so knows me & Anton & the people who know us

bought แน€100 of YES

never go short on love

bought แน€10 of YES

Not me but I hope it works out for you

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