(No) Elephant in the AI room
20
1kṀ1321
resolved Jul 2
Resolved
NO

Shortly after market close, I will ask an AI generated image on Bing : "A room with no elephant, not even any reference to an elephant", expecting 4 propositions as usual.

Market will resolve YES if all four proposals match the prompt correctly.

That means not like today :

In resolves NO if one or more proposal have an elephant or a reference to an elephant (drawing, logo, written text). The reference must be direct. An elephant tusk is enough, but not just an ivory object. An hippopotamus would not qualify as a reference.

I will use another AI if for some reason Bing is unavailable.

This is inspired by Gary Marcus https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-must-be-some-misunderstanding

Also by my "Not a French Frog" comment here, a few days before:

https://manifold.markets/Ernie/midjourney-can-draw-a-frog-riding-a-c14b6948e49e#EqgVM2p5O8ci26CubOVV

I will not bet on this market, to avoid subjectivity.

At least, there was an effort to hide in the corner:

https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-room-with-no-elephant2c-not-even-any-reference-to/1-65c53659c0d14d54911861def5733f4c?id=R6Ahoc7o7PWRGnSLs7XclA%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&thId=OIG3.cFBMXK9cNZvZAjJkEmsY&FORM=GCRIDP&mode=overlay

  • Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they are beginning the resolution process.

  • Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they are beginning the resolution process and has shared the results of the AI image generation test. See the linked comment for details.

  • Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that an image showing an elephant outside the room (e.g., visible through a window) is considered correct and does not violate the resolution criteria.

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