Will the aggregated blind mode predictions outperform aggregated full mode predictions in the 2023 ACX prediction contest?
Basic
15
Ṁ361Apr 10
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Refer to this article for more information on this contest: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be substantive issues with Safe AI’s claim to forecast better than the Metaculus crowd, found before 2025?
77% chance
Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?
Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in the 2024 ACX Contest?
18% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
33% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
37% chance
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
45% chance
Will the Jan 2024 version of the LLM detector "Binoculars" be effective against OpenAI's best model at end 2024?
59% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
[ACX 2024] Will an AI win a (highest division) coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?
4% chance
Zvi Blind vs. Manifold 2024 ACX Predictions: Who Maximizes Brier Score? (% resolution)
4% chance