Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in 2023 ACX contest? | Manifold

Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in 2023 ACX contest?

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Ṁ4604

resolved Mar 5

Resolved

NO

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1M

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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022

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Unless my math is wrong, we sadly fall short in logloss and R^2 scoring ):

At what time horizon?

Extending until results posted by a reliable source (probably ACX)

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Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025?

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