Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in the 2024 ACX Contest?

Question

A sequel to @/ZanyEconomist/will-manifold-outperform-metaculus

In the 2023 prediction contest, the Metaculus forecasts outperformed not only Manifold but also almost everyone else.

[image]I think there are lots of reasons not to take this at face value, the biggest one being that Manifold was just a lot smaller at the start of 2023 and I think we've gotten more accurate since due to both growth and other improvements to the platform.

But nonetheless, this is striking! And it makes sense for a number of structural reasons.

Will we do better than Metaculus in the 2024 ACX contest? I will resolve based on Scott's analysis if he does one, or the next best thing I can find if he doesn't.

Also, see my proposal that we should just have a forecast for every market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/do-you-think-every-market-should-al-e0c640cd0c45)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 18% chance (17 traders, as of Dec 2, 2024).