Will the Democratic presidential candidate be either Joe Biden, or his chosen successor?
Basic
15
3.8k
2025
91%
chance

Resolves YES if the Democratic candidate for president is Joe Biden. Resolves YES if Joe Biden endorses someone else for president, and that person later becomes the Democratic candidate. Resolves NO otherwise.

I am only counting the first person (other than himself) that Biden endorses for president. This market still resolves NO if, for example, Biden drops out and endorses Harris, but Newsom beats Harris at the convention, and Biden then changes his endorsement to Newsom.

If it is difficult to determine who, if anyone, should be considered the "Democratic candidate" - such as if Biden drops out in late October, and the Democrats are divided between multiple candidates - I will resolve YES only if the person endorsed by Biden receives more electoral votes than all other Democratic candidates combined, and NO otherwise.

*edit July 4th: "and that person becomes the Democratic candidate" -> "and that person later becomes the Democratic candidate"; clarifying that the endorsement must come before them being selected as the candidate

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